If you have long played in bookmakers, you have probably heard about such a concept as “overload”.
So, in our today’s article, we’d like to talk about what the “overloads” represent and how to use them for sports betting.
What are the overloads in betting?
Stake overloads are situations when the vast majority of bets being placed on one of the outcomes of the event, and their amount significantly exceeds the bets for all other outcomes combined.
Bookmakers detect it quickly enough and react to such line overloads by lowering the odd on the “loadable” outcome. At the same time, the odd is raised by the opposite result.
Such situations can often be observed in the favorite-outsider matches. The fact that many newbies like to bet on the favorite victory, considering that such bet has every chance of success.
This entails “overloading” and the bookies start to reduce the odd of favorite success, at the same time increasing it for the underdog victory. It’s sort of a “red herring” by which a bookie tries to protect itself from losing large sums in the case more eminent team really wins.
In any case, the bookie will have to pay out the winnings to those players who have placed a bet at initial odds. But with its decrease, other bettors will already get much smaller profit, and some of them will even change their mind to bet on this outcome.
What other overload types?
In addition to “amateur” overloads, there are some that arise due to the work of professionals. For example, the arbers immediately rush to place participating outcomes when a bookmaker arb appears.
This also entails line overloads, but to some extent, they can be dangerous for players. If a massive bet on the favorite won’t cause any doubt from the bookmaker, the huge number of bets on any unpopular match/outcome is cause for suspicion.
As a result, bettors who bet on that outcome will immediately get into the “watch list” of the bookmaker security service, with a possible subsequent lowering of limits and other sanctions.
Moreover, often overloads arise after the information about the presence of alleged match-fixing or published forecast from any credible capper.
Naturally, many bettors start betting on the relevant outcomes and the bookies begin to move quotas.
How useful the line overloads for bettors?
As of today, some players have learned to use overloads for their own purposes. To begin with, bettors thoroughly analyze the selected betting event (e.g., match between the favorite and underdog) for all important criteria, such as:
- Statistics of personal meetings;
- Current form of both teams;
- Motivation (how important a victory in the match);
- Staff losses, etc.
Then, if the result of a careful analysis revealed that, for instance, the underdog has a good chance not to lose with a big score to its opponent, the bettor comes into play.
In this case, the bettor needs to wait a moment when the odd for that outcome will decrease as much as possible due to a huge number of bets on the favorite winning. Consequently, the underdog’s odds will increase with high probability.
Next, it remains only to make a bet on this outcome and hope that it will pay off. It should be noted that the probability of this is very high with a careful analysis of the event.
Today we’ve reviewed what constitutes overloads in betting, and how the bettors use them.
In addition, we’d like to recommend you the “Betting School” section of our information portal, where you’ll find many other educational materials on sports betting.